Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight odds will shift the longer the heavyweight bout goes

Whether Mike Tyson or Jake Paul emerges as the winner from their fight likely depends on how long it goes.

Both men appear aware of that, too, heading into their heavyweight bout scheduled for eight rounds Friday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Conventional wisdom: The shorter the fight, the better for Tyson. At 58, his stamina could be a problem.

Or, the longer the fight, the better for Paul. At 27, it would serve him well to tire the former champion.

So it should have been no surprise Paul offered to give Tyson $5 million if the former heavyweight champion could get past the fourth round.

Nor should it have been a surprise that Tyson said he wanted $20 million. (If Tyson failed to make it past the fourth round, Paul explained, he would have to get a tattoo that said, “I love Jake.’’ Although the tattoo more appropriately should read, “I fell for a really bad bet.’’)

What if the fight ends before the fourth round?

The early rounds are the most dangerous for Tyson’s opponents. He does not like to waste time.

Of his 44 career knockouts, 22 came in the first round. Seven came in the second round, three in the third and two in the fourth. Michael Spinks lasted just 91 seconds and Marvis Frazier survived just 30 seconds.

"He doesn't want to go the long route,'' Joe Cortez, who refereed Tyson's last pro fight, against Kevin McBride, told USA TODAY Sports. Yes, Tyson's almost two decades removed from that bout in 2005, and Paul is no Michael Spinks or Marvis Frazier.

Also, videos show Tyson training hard and appearing to be in terrific shape. That could be vital considering Tyson said he expects Paul to “run like a thief.’’ But it Tyson catches up to Paul before the end of the fourth round, he’ll likely still have the stamina to deliver a knockout blow.

“If in early rounds Jake Paul cannot keep Mike Tyson off of him, it’s going to an early night,'' said Ann Wolfe, a former champion boxer.

But an early finish is no guarantee of a Tyson victory. Paul has a powerful right hand and has warned that he’ll use it if Tyson charges at him. Teddy Atlas, who helped train Tyson when Tyson was a teenager,  imagined the possibility of Paul throwing a straight right at the same time Tyson throws his signature left hook.

“The best punch Paul has is a straight right hand,’’ Atlas said. “A straight right hand still beats a left hook, if the left hook is thrown at the wrong time.’’

What if the fight goes beyond the fourth round?

Of Tyson’s 50 victories, only nine of those bouts went beyond six rounds. As boxing historian Mike Silver said, "If a decent fighter took him past the fourth or fifth round, he wasn't as effective as a knockout puncher.’’

Tyson quit his last pro fight while sitting on his stool after the sixth round and Cortez, the retired referee, said the problem was Tyson's conditioning. Could Tyson possibly have more stamina at 58 than he had at 38?

"I think Mike is going to try to put (Paul) away as quick as possible,'' Cortez said. "He'll reflect on that last fight he had.''

Which is the very reason Paul will try to drag Tyson into the latter rounds. Wolfe would not be shocked if it happens.

"He’s learned how to box better than what people think he can box,'' she said. "People don’t understand that. And he’s got those young legs and that will to win."

More than potentially frustrate Tyson, a longer fight would test the former champ’s stamina and potentially leave him vulnerable to Paul’s knockout power.

Don’t forget, Paul has seven knockouts in 11 fights and has knocked down each of the 10 boxers he’s faced.

Tyron Woodley, the former UFC champion, said Paul looked fatigued during their second fight. But, Woodley added, “even when he was tired and huffing and puffing, he could still bite his mouth guard down and swing a hard-ass punch.’’

Paul knocked out Woodley in the sixth round.

Of course, it’s not exactly safe to be in the ring with Tyson at any point. Of his 44 knockouts, three came in the sixth round, two in the seventh and one in the 10th. 

“Mike Tyson might have a flashback,’’ Woodley said. ”You know what I mean? We all know the more he’s in there, the more he may start remembering.’’

Remembering how to win.

Follow Josh Peter on social media @joshlpeter11